The 97th Academy Awards, held on March 2, 2025, at Hollywood’s Dolby Theatre, capped a wildly unpredictable season with no dominant frontrunner like Parasite or Oppenheimer. Anora, The Brutalist, and Conclave led the Best Picture race, while underdogs like I’m Still Here and The Substance gained late traction. Guild wins, controversies, and diverse voter preferences kept the race fluid. Here’s a breakdown of early bets and potential surprises.
In This Article:
Best Picture: A Fierce Trio with Upset Potential
Sean Baker’s Anora, a Palme d’Or-winning comedy-drama about a sex worker’s chaotic life, emerged as the favorite after sweeping Producers, Directors, and Writers Guild Awards, boasting a 52% win probability. Its $30 million global haul and universal appeal resonated widely. The Brutalist, Brady Corbet’s 215-minute Holocaust epic, secured 10 nominations and critical raves and is expected to claim three to five Oscars. Conclave, a papal thriller, surged with BAFTA and SAG Ensemble wins, appealing to voters seeking accessibility. Dark horses include I’m Still Here, a Brazilian drama catching late buzz for its political resonance, and The Substance, a gory satire gaining cult status. Emilia Pérez’s 13 nominations stumbled after Karla Sofía Gascón’s social media controversy.
Best Actor: Brody’s Lead, Chalamet’s Chase
Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) held a -250 edge for his towering role as László Tóth, sweeping BAFTA, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice (The Athletic, 2025). Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), at +200, gained with a SAG win for his Bob Dylan role, potentially breaking Brody’s 2002 youngest-winner record (CNBC, 2025). Ralph Fiennes (Conclave, +1400) and Colman Domingo (Sing Sing, +3300) were long shots, their nuanced performances earning late praise (Vulture, 2025).
Best Actress: Moore’s Momentum, Madison’s Surge
Demi Moore (The Substance) led at -250, her comeback as a fading star bolstered by SAG, Critics Choice, and Golden Globe wins. Mikey Madison (Anora, +200) countered with BAFTA and Independent Spirit wins, tied to her film’s Best Picture strength (Variety, 2025). Fernanda Torres (I’m Still Here) was a dark horse, her raw performance gaining steam.
Supporting and Technical Races
Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) and Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) dominated Supporting Actor and Actress, sweeping precursors (AwardsWatch, 2025). The Brutalist led crafts, with Lol Crawley favored for cinematography and Daniel Blumberg for score. Dune: Part Two eyed Sound and Visual Effects, while Wicked led Costume Design (Vulture, 2025). Anora was poised for Original Screenplay, Conclave for Adapted (AwardsWatch, 2025).
Why It’s Anyone’s Game
Ranked-choice voting, controversies like The Brutalist’s AI use, and a 24-hour, 45-minute Best Picture slate fueled unpredictability. Los Angeles wildfires disrupted campaigning, boosting Conclave’s universal appeal. With no film sweeping, the 2025 Oscars delivered a mix of indie triumphs and mainstream surprises.
-By Manoj H