New Delhi, Jan 29 (PTI) — Ongoing negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement between India and the United States are expected to conclude this year, potentially easing external uncertainties, according to the Economic Survey 2025-26 tabled in Parliament on Thursday.
The Survey noted that while slower growth in key trading partners, tariff-related trade disruptions, and volatility in capital flows could intermittently affect exports and investor sentiment, India’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain resilient. “For India, the global conditions translate into external uncertainties rather than immediate macroeconomic stress,” it said.
India and the US have been negotiating the trade deal since March 2025, with six rounds of discussions held so far. Progress has been slow due to steep tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Indian goods. Since August last year, Indian exports to the US face an effective 50 per cent tariff, among the highest levied on any country. The additional penalties followed India’s purchase of Russian crude oil.
A delegation from the US Trade Representative’s office, led by Deputy USTR Ambassador Rick Switzer, visited India in December 2025 for talks. This marked their second trip since the tariffs were imposed, aimed at advancing negotiations. The Survey said, “There has been progress in negotiations of the trade deal between the two countries.”
While the current tariff wave and stricter non-tariff barriers present challenges, particularly for export-oriented and labour-intensive sectors, Indian exporters have shown resilience by redirecting shipments to alternative markets. The Survey highlighted that although exports to the US declined during April–November 2025, India registered positive growth in other international markets.
The Economic Survey emphasised that concluding the trade talks would provide much-needed clarity to industries and investors, helping India navigate an increasingly unpredictable global economic landscape shaped by tariffs, supply chain shifts, and rising regulatory hurdles.
PTI
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